CAN OBAMA BE DEFEATED IN 2012?

[Twana Blevins]

Chandlers Watch

 

Penned by J.B. Williams

 

 

With removing Obama from office being the highest priority in America today, I decided to study the landscape of the 2012 election myself, taking nothing for granted and a very realistic look at how the 2012 Presidential race is likely to shape up by November.

You are about to see why I started saying in 2008, that Obama will be nearly impossible to remove from office if allowed to complete his first term, no matter how ugly his first term record would become. Here’s why I was saying that…

Mitt Romney is a lock for the GOP nomination based upon 53.2% of the popular primary vote and 73% of the official GOP delegate count. Santorum in 2nd and Gingrich in 3rd are out of the race and Ron Paul is sitting at 11.2% of the popular vote, 6% in the delegate count. Barring any unforeseen miracles, Mitt Romney will emerge from the GOP Convention as the GOP nominee for the office of President. How people feel about that is an entirely different discussion left for another day.

Still, the Real Clear Politics poll averages shows Romney in a popular vote statistical tie with Obama in a head-to-head fight for the White House, despite Obama’s disastrous first term record on all fronts. 48 states are winner-takes-all in the Electoral College rules. Only Nebraska and Maine use a proportionate split based on popular vote margins, which is essentially a non-factor here.

What will Romney have to do to defeat Obama?

No matter what polling data indicates, Romney will begin his post-convention race to the White House with a significant disadvantage. Polling data might indicate a statistical tie in popular vote, but the delegate race isn’t even close.

There are only 17 solidly Republican states at present that will vote for the GOP nominee almost no matter who the nominee might be. Those 17 states represent only 146 of 538 delegates, or 270 needed to squeak out a victory.

There are 20 solidly Democrat states (counting DC’s 3 delegates) representing 242 Electoral College delegates. These delegates will go to the DNC candidate no matter whom the candidate is…

The baseline starting point for the post-convention White House race is Obama 242 – Romney 146. Romney starts with a 96 delegate deficit and will only have a few opportunities to overcome Obama in a race for the 270 delegates needed to win the Electoral College race.

Obama needs 28 more delegates to win. Romney needs 124… There are only 150 delegates in play, as you will soon see.

What States are in play?

At best, there are only 14 states in play in 2012. The other 36 states plus D.C. are entirely predictable.

Five of these states, Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma, are Democrat leaning states demographically, but they all voted against Barack Obama in 2008 and they are very likely to vote against Barack Obama again in 2012. Romney can pick up 38 additional delegates here, but it is not guaranteed. Romney needs at least 86 more even if he holds all five of these states…

Five more states, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia lean Republican demographically, but voted for Obama in 2008. All five of these states have Republican Governors now and their influence in turning their states from Obama in 2008 to Romney in 2012 is key to Romney picking up the 54 delegates represented by these states. Romney will still need 32 more delegates even if he can carry ALL ten of these states.

The Tea Party will also be key to Romney carrying these ten states. If Tea Party groups from all across the country focus their energies in the real battleground states, Romney can likely carry these states narrowing the margin to just those four states that will truly be a battle.

The only states left in play after that are Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin, representing 58 delegates. All four of these states broke for Obama in 2008. Romney will have to win at least 32 of these 58 delegates in order to defeat Obama in November. He must win three of the four, New Hampshire being the least important strictly due to delegate count.

What are the Odds?

Romney cannot win without holding Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma. In addition, he will have to convert Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia and pick up an additional 32 delegates from Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin. He will need at least 13 of the 14 states that are in play!

In other words, Romney will pretty much have to win every state except the hardcore Democrat states with 242 delegates that Obama already has in the bag. Romney will have to turn the entire nation RED, or at least 29 of the 50 states. He will have to have a sea to sea landslide in order to remove Obama from office. Like those odds?

That’s before we take DNC voter fraud into account…

Democrat voter fraud was massive in 2008. It will be multiplied exponentially in 2012.

Florida is trying to remove over 50,000 DEAD voters from their voter registry right now, not counting illegal voters, and Obama’s Justice Department is suing Florida to keep those DEAD voters in the game. Other states are experiencing similar issues.

SEIU controls the voting machines in this country and international leftists in Spain will be counting the votes from many of the states this year. Odds getting better?

The lame-stream press and Hollyweird will be 100% in Obama’s pocket and doing all they can to destroy the Romney family for the next five months. Picture looking brighter now?

Obama has such a clear advantage in delegate count that the popular vote almost doesn’t matter. He only needs to succeed a little in the fraudulent voter department, to keep Romney from picking up ALL of the delegates he must pick up to win.

Then We have the Paul Factor

Rand Paul is signaling party unity with his recent endorsement of Mitt Romney, which angered many Ron Paul supporters causing them to turn on Rand. Although Ron Paul has suspended his campaign in the remaining primary states, he has not yet officially closed down his campaign and many supporters are still speculating on opportunities to disrupt the GOP convention, which will of course open the door even further for Obama’s re-election.

Republican and conservative Paul supporters are already making the migration to Romney, recognizing that removing Obama from office is job #1 in America circa 2012.

Democrat supporters are perhaps the angriest Paul fans, as they became Paul supporters in 2008 when Paul was the only anti-war, pro-gay, pro-legalized marijuana candidate in the race.

Independents broke for Obama in 2008. But some independents saw hope in the anti-establishment message of Ron and Rand Paul. With Ron essentially out of the game, these voters will likely follow Rand Paul’s lead, or stay home on Election Day.

That leaves Paul’s hardcore 21st Century Libertarian supporters and I have no clue what they will do on November 6, 2012. Many promise to break to a 3rd Party candidate or stay home. But as the country worsens under the Obama cabal, some may eventually drop the Libertarian agenda in favor of the American agenda of stopping Obama’s destruction of our country. One can hope…

The VP Pick

Who Romney chooses as a running mate may be pivotal and this will be no easy task. He has no choice but to choose someone who can inspire voters not currently inspired by Romney or Obama.

Yet, he cannot choose an ineligible running mate like Marco Rubio or Bobby Jindal, no matter how popular they might be among RNC insiders.

Close attention should be paid to the States in play when choosing a running mate.

No Matter How You Look at It

Mitt Romney is a long shot with odds in the single digits. All the stars will have to align for Romney and more specifically, against Obama, in order for Romney to win.

But no matter the overwhelming odds, removing Obama and Clinton from office is a necessary goal that we simply must find a way to accomplish.

I can’t imagine any higher priority in America today. Time and resources spent on anything else will be time and resources wasted. If Obama and Clinton are not removed from office, nothing else the people do will matter.

From my perspective, Romney is no prize. But America is in a corner, between a rock and a hard place. Those who cannot stomach a “lesser evil” will have to learn to live with a much greater evil, again.

I pray that Americans have more sense than that this time!

© 2012 JB Williams – All Rights Reserved

 

JB Williams is a business man, a husband, a father, and a writer. A no nonsense commentator on American politics, American history, and American philosophy. He is published nationwide and in many countries around the world. He is also a Founder of Freedom Force USA and a staunch conservative actively engaged in returning the power to the right people in America.

Web site 1: www.PatriotsUnion.org

Web site 2: www.VeteranDefenders.org

E-Mail:[e-mail]

[Debrajoe Beatty]

Thanks for this article. I hope it opens people's eyes.

[Cathy Gardino]

I believe we all must speak our truth...even in he line at the supermarket! The philosophical lines are very clear...We the people must give the differences a voice...EVERYWHERE, EVERYONE. EVERYDAY!

[Joe Grisafi Jr.]

I see very little difference (very little) between Romney and Obama. Policy wise - none. Romney was pushed on us and we accepted (I didn't). Romney says all the right things............until he gets into office (IF). Than look out. The road to socialism is paved.

The race to socialism - with Obama we'll be traveling at 90 MPH - with Romney, 40 MPH. The end of the road is just ahead of us, how quickly we get there.....................we'll see.

For those that use the phrase "anybody but Obama" is not thinking clearly. The thought behind the lesser of two evils is the exact reason we find ourselves in this position. For years / decades that has always been our mantra. So who is to blame? We are. We have been conditioned.

[Donnie Roberts]

your right and I agree with you 100% obama and romney are just the same  

[JB]

Obama and Romney are nothing alike....

Whose Kool-aid have you been drinking?

Romney is no prize, as I state in the column. But is Romney a Muslim, a traitor, a chronic liar, a megalomaniac, a fraud, a criminal, a foreign born enemy of our state and a lot of other things that Obama is....???

You really can't tell any difference between these two people? Really?

[Joe Grisafi Jr.]

...and the conditioning continues. I rest my case.

All these issues you raise; Muslim, traitor, chronic liar does not mean he is not a socialist. It is this exact mindset that has put us in this position. You take these little nuances rather than look at the big picture and make up your mind. Romney IS the lesser of two evils.............but still evil.

How sad. He's not a Muslim - great. He's not a traitor (really? Have you heard of Romneycare?). He's not a chronic liar - only some times. How about now?

You have been conditioned, my friend and you don't know it. You can't see it. And of course the worst part, you won't believe it.

[JB]

Joe, tell me what kind of conditioning causes someone to choose GREATER EVIL over lesser evil?

[GRINGO LUCERO]

Joe:  You are a lousy debater. What happened to the Chrysler Dealerships and G.M. is Socialism touted by Mr. Obama.  Socialism opens the slide to Fascism which opens the slide to Communism all greasier and more fouled for a quicker descent into "Slavery for All", even the Useful Idiots who thought they would be heroically manning the brave new world.  Saul Alinsky and Cloward and Pivens INC have a big wrecking ball but not a single thing to rebuild with after the smoke clears.  Your rhetoric is fallacious and you must admit nearly exhausted. And I won't exhaust myself in further dialogue with you as the rest here see your arguements for what they are intended to be.  Troll on Bro. but somewhere else.   

[Shane Christiansen]

WELL PUT GRINGO

[Shane Christiansen]

The BIG PICTURE IS THE CONSTITUTION THE ONE I SERVED TO DEFEND AND THESE 535 TREASONOUS POLITICAL FACTORS IN MY WHITEHOUSE HAVE DEFRUADED THE ENTIRE AMERICAN PEOPLE  AND BANKRUPTED THIS NATION ROMNEY IS NO PEACH BUT YOU NEED TO GET YOUR POLITICS STRAIGHT BECAUSE THAT ABOMINATION IN MY WHITEHOUSE IS A TREASONOUS MUSLIM!!!!!

[GRINGO LUCERO]

RIGHT ON J.B.:  Folks get wrapped on the Religion thing:  Well Mroni of the Mormon's is NOT Mohammed of the Muslims. Romneys folks may be Latter Day Saints BUT they Are NOT Putting Anyone to Death for Departing from Mormonism, whereas YES, The Muslims will kill an Apostate. So am I saying Obama is a Muslim? - With 3 Moslems in the Department of Homeland Security, he just may as well overtly be one of them.  With Obama care we have a built in ready to go Dhimmi tax.  The Muslims here are exempt from Obama Care.  Romney has NOT hidden his past; Obama has and the Judges, (most notably Judge Malihi, {with the Iranian last name}, in Georgia), have helped BHO play "hide the weeny". Romney has excellent credentials and put his reputation on the block as an Economic Organizer".  BHO has received mixed reviews down on the block as a community organizer. If Romney has puppet strings attached they come down from GOD.:  Bho's puppet strings go to Nazi enabler George Soreass.  Who sees NO Difference- - -Wipe your "specs"  ! ! !       

[JB]

The only folks who can't tell the difference between Obama and Romney are people who'd really like to vote for Hillary, or maybe Marx himself. Thanks Gringo!