Penned by J.B. Williams
With removing Obama from office being the highest priority in America today, I decided to study the landscape of the 2012 election myself, taking nothing for granted and a very realistic look at how the 2012 Presidential race is likely to shape up by November.
You are about to see why I started saying in 2008, that Obama will be nearly impossible to remove from office if allowed to complete his first term, no matter how ugly his first term record would become. Here’s why I was saying that…
Mitt Romney is a lock for the GOP nomination based upon 53.2% of the popular primary vote and 73% of the official GOP delegate count. Santorum in 2nd and Gingrich in 3rd are out of the race and Ron Paul is sitting at 11.2% of the popular vote, 6% in the delegate count. Barring any unforeseen miracles, Mitt Romney will emerge from the GOP Convention as the GOP nominee for the office of President. How people feel about that is an entirely different discussion left for another day.
Still, the Real Clear Politics poll averages shows Romney in a popular vote statistical tie with Obama in a head-to-head fight for the White House, despite Obama’s disastrous first term record on all fronts. 48 states are winner-takes-all in the Electoral College rules. Only Nebraska and Maine use a proportionate split based on popular vote margins, which is essentially a non-factor here.
What will Romney have to do to defeat Obama?
No matter what polling data indicates, Romney will begin his post-convention race to the White House with a significant disadvantage. Polling data might indicate a statistical tie in popular vote, but the delegate race isn’t even close.
There are only 17 solidly Republican states at present that will vote for the GOP nominee almost no matter who the nominee might be. Those 17 states represent only 146 of 538 delegates, or 270 needed to squeak out a victory.
There are 20 solidly Democrat states (counting DC’s 3 delegates) representing 242 Electoral College delegates. These delegates will go to the DNC candidate no matter whom the candidate is…
The baseline starting point for the post-convention White House race is Obama 242 – Romney 146. Romney starts with a 96 delegate deficit and will only have a few opportunities to overcome Obama in a race for the 270 delegates needed to win the Electoral College race.
Obama needs 28 more delegates to win. Romney needs 124… There are only 150 delegates in play, as you will soon see.
What States are in play?
At best, there are only 14 states in play in 2012. The other 36 states plus D.C. are entirely predictable.
Five of these states, Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma, are Democrat leaning states demographically, but they all voted against Barack Obama in 2008 and they are very likely to vote against Barack Obama again in 2012. Romney can pick up 38 additional delegates here, but it is not guaranteed. Romney needs at least 86 more even if he holds all five of these states…
Five more states, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia lean Republican demographically, but voted for Obama in 2008. All five of these states have Republican Governors now and their influence in turning their states from Obama in 2008 to Romney in 2012 is key to Romney picking up the 54 delegates represented by these states. Romney will still need 32 more delegates even if he can carry ALL ten of these states.
The Tea Party will also be key to Romney carrying these ten states. If Tea Party groups from all across the country focus their energies in the real battleground states, Romney can likely carry these states narrowing the margin to just those four states that will truly be a battle.
The only states left in play after that are Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin, representing 58 delegates. All four of these states broke for Obama in 2008. Romney will have to win at least 32 of these 58 delegates in order to defeat Obama in November. He must win three of the four, New Hampshire being the least important strictly due to delegate count.
What are the Odds?
Romney cannot win without holding Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma. In addition, he will have to convert Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia and pick up an additional 32 delegates from Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin. He will need at least 13 of the 14 states that are in play!
In other words, Romney will pretty much have to win every state except the hardcore Democrat states with 242 delegates that Obama already has in the bag. Romney will have to turn the entire nation RED, or at least 29 of the 50 states. He will have to have a sea to sea landslide in order to remove Obama from office. Like those odds?
That’s before we take DNC voter fraud into account…
Democrat voter fraud was massive in 2008. It will be multiplied exponentially in 2012.
Florida is trying to remove over 50,000 DEAD voters from their voter registry right now, not counting illegal voters, and Obama’s Justice Department is suing Florida to keep those DEAD voters in the game. Other states are experiencing similar issues.
SEIU controls the voting machines in this country and international leftists in Spain will be counting the votes from many of the states this year. Odds getting better?
The lame-stream press and Hollyweird will be 100% in Obama’s pocket and doing all they can to destroy the Romney family for the next five months. Picture looking brighter now?
Obama has such a clear advantage in delegate count that the popular vote almost doesn’t matter. He only needs to succeed a little in the fraudulent voter department, to keep Romney from picking up ALL of the delegates he must pick up to win.
Then We have the Paul Factor
Rand Paul is signaling party unity with his recent endorsement of Mitt Romney, which angered many Ron Paul supporters causing them to turn on Rand. Although Ron Paul has suspended his campaign in the remaining primary states, he has not yet officially closed down his campaign and many supporters are still speculating on opportunities to disrupt the GOP convention, which will of course open the door even further for Obama’s re-election.
Republican and conservative Paul supporters are already making the migration to Romney, recognizing that removing Obama from office is job #1 in America circa 2012.
Democrat supporters are perhaps the angriest Paul fans, as they became Paul supporters in 2008 when Paul was the only anti-war, pro-gay, pro-legalized marijuana candidate in the race.
Independents broke for Obama in 2008. But some independents saw hope in the anti-establishment message of Ron and Rand Paul. With Ron essentially out of the game, these voters will likely follow Rand Paul’s lead, or stay home on Election Day.
That leaves Paul’s hardcore 21st Century Libertarian supporters and I have no clue what they will do on November 6, 2012. Many promise to break to a 3rd Party candidate or stay home. But as the country worsens under the Obama cabal, some may eventually drop the Libertarian agenda in favor of the American agenda of stopping Obama’s destruction of our country. One can hope…
The VP Pick
Who Romney chooses as a running mate may be pivotal and this will be no easy task. He has no choice but to choose someone who can inspire voters not currently inspired by Romney or Obama.
Yet, he cannot choose an ineligible running mate like Marco Rubio or Bobby Jindal, no matter how popular they might be among RNC insiders.
Close attention should be paid to the States in play when choosing a running mate.
No Matter How You Look at It
Mitt Romney is a long shot with odds in the single digits. All the stars will have to align for Romney and more specifically, against Obama, in order for Romney to win.
But no matter the overwhelming odds, removing Obama and Clinton from office is a necessary goal that we simply must find a way to accomplish.
I can’t imagine any higher priority in America today. Time and resources spent on anything else will be time and resources wasted. If Obama and Clinton are not removed from office, nothing else the people do will matter.
From my perspective, Romney is no prize. But America is in a corner, between a rock and a hard place. Those who cannot stomach a “lesser evil” will have to learn to live with a much greater evil, again.
I pray that Americans have more sense than that this time!
© 2012 JB Williams – All Rights Reserved
JB Williams is a business man, a husband, a father, and a writer. A no nonsense commentator on American politics, American history, and American philosophy. He is published nationwide and in many countries around the world. He is also a Founder of Freedom Force USA and a staunch conservative actively engaged in returning the power to the right people in America.
Web site 1: www.PatriotsUnion.org
Web site 2: www.VeteranDefenders.org
i CAN'T IMAGE PEOPLE NOT BEING AWARE OF WHAT BARACKS PLANS ARE FOR ANERICA AND STILL VOTE FOR HIM..
LET ME CORRECT THAT ,I CANNOT UNDERSTAND PEOPLE NOT DOING MORE RESEARCH ON BARACK'S PAST AND THE PRESENT, AND EVEN CONDIDER HIM JUST BECAUSE YOUR TO LAZY TO BOTHER TO LOOK INT THE TRUTH .
ALL THE PROFF IS OUT THERE, GET BUSY AND READ IT, YOU CAN START BY READING , "THE AMATEUR" ALL TRUE, HE CAN ONLY SAY IT IS ALL A LIE ,AND IF STUPID GOES ON A HOLIDAY ,AND YOU READ IT YOU WILL FIND IT TRUE.
THIS MAN BARACK JUST CAN'T HELP BUT LIE. I WOULD THINK PEOPLE WOULD HAVE PICKED UP ON THAT BY NOW.
I find it very disturbing that people think they can afford to bash everyone but Obama. It demonstrates that they have not done sufficient homework on Obama, among other things.
Dorris, I hate to burst your bubble, but I know some staunch Liberals today, that still can't find their heads in their asses who to this day, still think Obama is their savior and can do no wrong.....It is really pathetic, it is more of the women than the men and for the life of me, these women believe Religion has NO PLACE in Government or Schools. It really is quite sad and these people just don't want to get it.....
Well said Clois. I am reminded of a news article I saw some time ago where someone at a Democratic party office had a flag made up wherein they replaced the stars with a picture of Body Odor. To me that is very frightening. It brings to mind images of places like North Korea and the countries of the former Soviet Union and eastern Europe where pictures of the current dictator are plastered all over the place. Religion very much has a place in government and in our schools. It is the bible which gives us our Judeo-Christian values which up until now have made our federal republic work. We have been rapidly sliding into the abyss ever since the Supreme Court forced us to take God out of our schools.
I am going to start calling you BIG COUNTRY because your HEART is as BIG as this COUNTRY and your dedication to it and the TRUTH is UNPARALLELED.
GOD, I hope so!
Before I begin my comments on this article let me say that my comments are based on the assumption that the election in November will be an honest election. While Mitt Romney has a significant up hill battle I don't think that the situation is as dire as Mr. Williams suggests. This article appears to have been written prior to the recent failed recall election in Wisconsin. I believe that Governor Scott Walker's victory in Wisconsin will have nation wide consequences, positive for the Republicans and negative for the Democrats. A very close friend who is a native of Wisconsin insures me that the media coverage of the Wisconsin recall election was very skewed in the Democrats favor. (So what's new, right.) Walker's victory has opened the eyes of many union members and they have been leaving the unions in droves. Bear in mind that Wisconsin has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate for something in the neighborhood of 32 years. I firmly believe that the Wisconsin election was also a wake up call to all concerned that the taxpayers have finally said that enough is enough. Keep in mind that in left coast California San Diego (which has a Republican mayor) and one other city voted to also put limits on the public sector unions. Such election results would have been unheard of as recently as two or three years ago. I have no statistics for California but in Wisconsin public sector employees are leaving the unions in droves.
I believe there is also some flawed analysis by Mr. Williams in how states will vote in the coming election. I believe many of the traditionally Republican states which voted Democratic in 2008 will return to the fold come November. When considering how these states will vote one must keep in mind that with John McCain the Republicans did what they are notorious for, they presented a candidate of the caliber of Bob Dole. Neither Dole or McCain had any outstanding qualifications to be president and both ran rather milquetoast campaigns. The one exception to McCain's campaign was Sarah Palin.
Of the four states that Mr. Williams says Romney must hold, I would opine that the only one which is questionable is Colorado. As a resident of Arkansas I feel confident in my belief that Arkansas will most certainly break for Romney. Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Kentucky will almost assuredly come down on the side of the Republicans. My personal feeling is that the Democrats are vulnerable in many of the traditionally Democratic states. For example, New Jersey which is amongst the bluest of the blue states has a very popular Republican governor who, if memory serves correctly, has been mentioned as a possible vice presidential candidate. One should also keep in mind that the make up of the state governments shifted dramatically into the Republican column as a result of the 2010 election.
Recent polls also indicate that Obama's support in one of the staunchest Democratic voting blocks is slipping dramatically and that is amongst persons of the Jewish faith. The most recent number I recall is a 22% drop. That is very significant. As a little aside, I have never understood why Jews have almost always overwhelmingly voted Democratic. The security of the state of Israel is always a big issue with Jewish voters and Republicans have always been much stronger supporters of Israel than the Democrats. I have even seen reports where their support among blacks is slipping slightly. One can only hope that the national exposure which blacks such as Herman Cain and Allen West have received has had a positive effect.
I think the outcome of the election, if there is one, hinges very much on how honest it is. We all know very well that Eric Holder cannot be relied upon to insure a fair and honest election. However, there are signs that some of the states are beginning to take things in hand. In the past states like Florida would have rolled over and played dead when confronted with a lawsuit by the Department of Justice. That, however, is no longer the case as evidenced by Florida's turning to the courts to oppose Holder and the Democrats.
While I have never been nor probably ever will be a big fan of Mitt Romney I do think that the Republicans would be wise to capitalize on his character. While he cannot do it himself I think the Republicans would be very wise to capitalize on Romney's character. I have recently discovered that Romney has spent 28 years of his adult life working without pay. For example he ran the US olympic committee for three years without pay. During his time as governor of Massachusetts he never collected a salary. During his time at Bain Capital there was an incident where the daughter of one of the employees failed to return home from a party. Upon being informed Romney shut down Bain and turned all of the company's personnel and resources to find the missing daughter, which they did. After he left Bain Capital the company got into some financial difficulties and he was asked to return. He returned, got Bain back in the black, and did it all without drawing a salary. I also believe that if the Republicans are smart they will stress the fact that he is not a Washington insider. With the state of the economy being what it is I believe that many people have come to the conclusion that it is going to take someone with business experience to turn things around.
Please do not construe what I have said as a ringing endorsement of the Republican party, it is not. I believe the present state of the Republican party will leads us over the same cliff that the Democrats want to lead us over. I do believe that if we are to take back our country via peaceful means a Republican victory in November is the necessary first step. The first step, on a long long road back to our federal republic. For that reason we need to put aside our differences and not vote as republicans or democrats or libertarians but as Americans. If the Democrats are successful I fear that all is lost.
This is all based on the assumption that there will even be an election in November. I remain very skeptical of the chances of the election actually taking place.
Marvin , Your first assumption is completely wrong so far with fraud in the ballot box . Honesty would be a wonderful change and a novel idea but that's one change that ain't gonna happen any time soon and why the Paul delegates are suing the GOP .
Dennis......honesty is a value most Americans aspire to reflect...an assumption is expectation of a position, here it is honesty, not wrong or right.....it's a position backdrop. Let's not elevate Paul or his delegates to "sainthood" as the keepers of honesty or honest election. If Paul supporters and delegates were credible, they would be demanding that Mr. Constitution, Ron Paul adhere to his oath to the constitution and bring congressional impeachment action against a illegal, dishonest, constitution betraying White House occupant, Barack Obama. Almost every month Obama has taken some action in violation of the Constitution.....but Paul and all the rest have turned a blind eye to the constitution...rocks and glass houses......... I don't accept your implication that the Paul apparatus has the key to the "honesty box".
Ladies and Gentlemen,...If there is disention in our ranks here,...how will we ever defeat Obama?
That is the question Cathy. I will point out, we need to remember that there are "truth teamers" (Obots) infiltrating to post misinformation. Then there are others who join groups like PFA to go in and cause dissension and throw up distractions. We see this daily all over the internet. Recognize it for what it/they are and don't get sucked into their strife game. Also note, many of those infiltrators are getting paid to do that dirty work. And then there are those who just love an ONLINE fight....but probably would tuck tail and run in person.
Then of course we have the ones who join groups like PFA to only push their agenda and don't really have any intentions on linking arms with us and working for the restoration of our country. They are basically recruiters for their agenda. Sitting back and observing helps to recognize who those folks are. They aren't working for what is best for our country, they are working for their agenda and will demonize and berate anyone who calls them out for that.
I should have added above, that when we recognize the behaviors and actions I listed above, then we realize that it's just some and then we recognize that there are thousands of us here that are unified on the mission at hand, which is to remove Hussein obama and his cronies from our whitehouse and then we move on to the next missions.