CAN OBAMA BE DEFEATED IN 2012?

[Twana Blevins]

Chandlers Watch

 

Penned by J.B. Williams

 

 

With removing Obama from office being the highest priority in America today, I decided to study the landscape of the 2012 election myself, taking nothing for granted and a very realistic look at how the 2012 Presidential race is likely to shape up by November.

You are about to see why I started saying in 2008, that Obama will be nearly impossible to remove from office if allowed to complete his first term, no matter how ugly his first term record would become. Here’s why I was saying that…

Mitt Romney is a lock for the GOP nomination based upon 53.2% of the popular primary vote and 73% of the official GOP delegate count. Santorum in 2nd and Gingrich in 3rd are out of the race and Ron Paul is sitting at 11.2% of the popular vote, 6% in the delegate count. Barring any unforeseen miracles, Mitt Romney will emerge from the GOP Convention as the GOP nominee for the office of President. How people feel about that is an entirely different discussion left for another day.

Still, the Real Clear Politics poll averages shows Romney in a popular vote statistical tie with Obama in a head-to-head fight for the White House, despite Obama’s disastrous first term record on all fronts. 48 states are winner-takes-all in the Electoral College rules. Only Nebraska and Maine use a proportionate split based on popular vote margins, which is essentially a non-factor here.

What will Romney have to do to defeat Obama?

No matter what polling data indicates, Romney will begin his post-convention race to the White House with a significant disadvantage. Polling data might indicate a statistical tie in popular vote, but the delegate race isn’t even close.

There are only 17 solidly Republican states at present that will vote for the GOP nominee almost no matter who the nominee might be. Those 17 states represent only 146 of 538 delegates, or 270 needed to squeak out a victory.

There are 20 solidly Democrat states (counting DC’s 3 delegates) representing 242 Electoral College delegates. These delegates will go to the DNC candidate no matter whom the candidate is…

The baseline starting point for the post-convention White House race is Obama 242 – Romney 146. Romney starts with a 96 delegate deficit and will only have a few opportunities to overcome Obama in a race for the 270 delegates needed to win the Electoral College race.

Obama needs 28 more delegates to win. Romney needs 124… There are only 150 delegates in play, as you will soon see.

What States are in play?

At best, there are only 14 states in play in 2012. The other 36 states plus D.C. are entirely predictable.

Five of these states, Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma, are Democrat leaning states demographically, but they all voted against Barack Obama in 2008 and they are very likely to vote against Barack Obama again in 2012. Romney can pick up 38 additional delegates here, but it is not guaranteed. Romney needs at least 86 more even if he holds all five of these states…

Five more states, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia lean Republican demographically, but voted for Obama in 2008. All five of these states have Republican Governors now and their influence in turning their states from Obama in 2008 to Romney in 2012 is key to Romney picking up the 54 delegates represented by these states. Romney will still need 32 more delegates even if he can carry ALL ten of these states.

The Tea Party will also be key to Romney carrying these ten states. If Tea Party groups from all across the country focus their energies in the real battleground states, Romney can likely carry these states narrowing the margin to just those four states that will truly be a battle.

The only states left in play after that are Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin, representing 58 delegates. All four of these states broke for Obama in 2008. Romney will have to win at least 32 of these 58 delegates in order to defeat Obama in November. He must win three of the four, New Hampshire being the least important strictly due to delegate count.

What are the Odds?

Romney cannot win without holding Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma. In addition, he will have to convert Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia and pick up an additional 32 delegates from Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin. He will need at least 13 of the 14 states that are in play!

In other words, Romney will pretty much have to win every state except the hardcore Democrat states with 242 delegates that Obama already has in the bag. Romney will have to turn the entire nation RED, or at least 29 of the 50 states. He will have to have a sea to sea landslide in order to remove Obama from office. Like those odds?

That’s before we take DNC voter fraud into account…

Democrat voter fraud was massive in 2008. It will be multiplied exponentially in 2012.

Florida is trying to remove over 50,000 DEAD voters from their voter registry right now, not counting illegal voters, and Obama’s Justice Department is suing Florida to keep those DEAD voters in the game. Other states are experiencing similar issues.

SEIU controls the voting machines in this country and international leftists in Spain will be counting the votes from many of the states this year. Odds getting better?

The lame-stream press and Hollyweird will be 100% in Obama’s pocket and doing all they can to destroy the Romney family for the next five months. Picture looking brighter now?

Obama has such a clear advantage in delegate count that the popular vote almost doesn’t matter. He only needs to succeed a little in the fraudulent voter department, to keep Romney from picking up ALL of the delegates he must pick up to win.

Then We have the Paul Factor

Rand Paul is signaling party unity with his recent endorsement of Mitt Romney, which angered many Ron Paul supporters causing them to turn on Rand. Although Ron Paul has suspended his campaign in the remaining primary states, he has not yet officially closed down his campaign and many supporters are still speculating on opportunities to disrupt the GOP convention, which will of course open the door even further for Obama’s re-election.

Republican and conservative Paul supporters are already making the migration to Romney, recognizing that removing Obama from office is job #1 in America circa 2012.

Democrat supporters are perhaps the angriest Paul fans, as they became Paul supporters in 2008 when Paul was the only anti-war, pro-gay, pro-legalized marijuana candidate in the race.

Independents broke for Obama in 2008. But some independents saw hope in the anti-establishment message of Ron and Rand Paul. With Ron essentially out of the game, these voters will likely follow Rand Paul’s lead, or stay home on Election Day.

That leaves Paul’s hardcore 21st Century Libertarian supporters and I have no clue what they will do on November 6, 2012. Many promise to break to a 3rd Party candidate or stay home. But as the country worsens under the Obama cabal, some may eventually drop the Libertarian agenda in favor of the American agenda of stopping Obama’s destruction of our country. One can hope…

The VP Pick

Who Romney chooses as a running mate may be pivotal and this will be no easy task. He has no choice but to choose someone who can inspire voters not currently inspired by Romney or Obama.

Yet, he cannot choose an ineligible running mate like Marco Rubio or Bobby Jindal, no matter how popular they might be among RNC insiders.

Close attention should be paid to the States in play when choosing a running mate.

No Matter How You Look at It

Mitt Romney is a long shot with odds in the single digits. All the stars will have to align for Romney and more specifically, against Obama, in order for Romney to win.

But no matter the overwhelming odds, removing Obama and Clinton from office is a necessary goal that we simply must find a way to accomplish.

I can’t imagine any higher priority in America today. Time and resources spent on anything else will be time and resources wasted. If Obama and Clinton are not removed from office, nothing else the people do will matter.

From my perspective, Romney is no prize. But America is in a corner, between a rock and a hard place. Those who cannot stomach a “lesser evil” will have to learn to live with a much greater evil, again.

I pray that Americans have more sense than that this time!

© 2012 JB Williams – All Rights Reserved

 

JB Williams is a business man, a husband, a father, and a writer. A no nonsense commentator on American politics, American history, and American philosophy. He is published nationwide and in many countries around the world. He is also a Founder of Freedom Force USA and a staunch conservative actively engaged in returning the power to the right people in America.

Web site 1: www.PatriotsUnion.org

Web site 2: www.VeteranDefenders.org

E-Mail:[e-mail]

[Paul JJ Jensen]

That we agree on, dumbo has to go first! 

[Raffaele Cafagna]

We are not able to deal with Obama because of the race card ; but if Romney gets elected and he wants to continue to pave the road to socialism , we the People can Deal with him , by protesting , marching or by force and maybe our Retarded Imbeciles in Congress will have some Balls to stand up and Do Something. For sure the future does not look good at all and
We Americans are not Standing Tall for our Land and Freedom ; I keep pounding the 10% idea :
 

The solution is Very Simple : if 10% of the American Population, that is 30 Million of real Patriots ,would Unite and * UNITED WE STAND * * UNITED WE ARE THE POWER * , only a Fool would come against us . That 10% would be the most powerful organization against the Enemy ,foreign and domestic ; there is no military organization of that size on this planet ; obama`s army ,black panthers, tsa,and all the rest of craps on obama`s side would be running and pissing on their pants; all the 10% has to do is to * STAND TALL * and say NO to obama`s distorted mentality.

30 Million American Patriots * UNITED WE STAND * it is all it takes to CLEAN UP the garbage .
Now ......how difficult is to achieve this idea ???? It is matter of being a FREE man in a free Nation or become a slave. Please pass the idea of the 10% around. Thanks.
Does anyone understand the meaning of 10% ??? Yes it may require * use of force * but at this point that we are now ,
what else do we have left ?????It is our Land and our Freedom  versus the distorted mentality of one man ; it is like a dog with his tail between his legs or be a Free man in a Free Nation. Are we waiting for a Miracle ???? For the Lord to Restore Freedom, Faith, Justice ??? I do not have an answer , but I know what the Lord said : You Have to Help Yourself First and than I Will Help You. So here we are : Only Real Americans Can Save America.
My Personal Opinion about the coming Election ; TO HELL WITH CORRUPTION , Voter Fraud , Illegals , Dead Voters , Seiu ,   lame-stream press and Hollyweird , Acorn ; the 10% of Real Patriots, Real Americans being a Majority and United we Stand will Dictate and Will Establish Order and Discipline  and Finally Force the garbage into their satanic caves. America Wake Up and Smell your Freedom.

[Cathy Gardino]

You said it Sister!...Good for America that we have Patriots like you....Willingness to fight for FREEDOM, Demanding Honesty and Honor be Restored....Praying for God's divine guidance and his forgivness for our mistakes....We can save America but it takes a strong willingness of like minds and vigilence to protect our Constitution and the Bill of Rights...NO DISTORTIONS! NO re-interpretations!

[JB]

The reason we are forced to deal with Obama in the election booth is the 30 million patriots you speak of are divided among more than 25,000 small impotent competing groups.

If we could actually muster even 1 million true patriots in one place at one time, all moving in the same direction with the same single goal, we could accomplish what you speak of....

Sadly, we are not able to muster that army at present. As you can see by posts on this thread that demonstrate a "3rd party agenda" takes precedent over any American agenda for some, people are likewise divided by a thousand little agendas, unable to unite and fight together until they are ready to drop those personal agendas.

If we could muster, Obama would already be gone and sitting in a prison. Since we can't, we have to deal with Obama in the election booth.

Otherwise, I agree with what you are saying and have been trying to unite people for years now.

[Cathy Gardino]

and we must continue...no matter what...when an event comes that "triggers" us,...we'll do what we need to do.

[JB]

Exactly!

Until then, we fight evil everywhere we find it, refusing to shrink away from fighting the greatest evils of all.

[2qubpiy7cyc82]

I'm thinking that the true American agenda IS the third party agenda.  Anyone who thinks Romney is the lesser of two evils needs to read about his work on the DHS advisory committee that he sat on in 2004.  Have a look at the groundwork of his committee that Romney chaired for relieving us of our troublesome rights to privacy...there's a lot more if you follow the streams.

 

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/HSAC_HSIntelInfoFusion_Apr05.pdf

 

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/Final_LLIS_Intel_Reqs_Report_Dec...

 

Mr. Romney is obummer lite and although I agree that he is the lesser of two evils and that we should all focus on outing the current criminal in office, it's discouraging that Romney is the best we can do.  However, I will hold my nose and vote for him...if only to get rid of the treasonous liar.

[JB]

Even you define Romney as a lesser evil to Obama - "Obummer lite"

Like the rest of us, you will get a chance to re-elect Obama or remove Obama come November.

Which is your intention?

[2qubpiy7cyc82]

I'm almost laughing too hard to type...and I already answered that question in my post.  However, let's not forget that Romney laid the groundwork for a lot of the executive orders that have been issued with his work on that DHS committee.  Whereas he might be the lesser of two evils, he is by far and away only that...the lesser of two evils.  I long for the day when I have a candidate that I can vote for a candidate for all the right reasons....but reality is reality.  We MUST elect Romney to get the marxist out of office and deal with Romney and his bs later.  On this forum, I express my true beliefs and opinion...in the real world, I'm a Romney supporter....for all the reasons we both know we need to support his candidacy.

[JB]

So, you have fully studied the situation and come to the conclusion that The United States is better in the hands of Mitt Romney than Barack Obama?

I have come to the same conclusion....

I laid out in today's column that it will be almost impossible for Romney to win based upon the current make up of the electorate.

How does pounding on Romney help the situation?

I'm not a Romney fan myself. I have been pretty clear about that.

But I am a HUGE fan of freedom and I never thought I would live long enough to see the affronts to freedom that have occurred under Obama and Clinton the last three years. I have every confidence that this will only accelerate under a 2nd term.

I encourage folks who get this reality to avoid playing the dangerous game of bashing the only person able to remove Obama from office via the election booth. It may well be the only way to remove him.

For years now, I have written that what the people do the day after the election is much more important than what they do the day of the election. No matter who is elected, the people will have to FORCE them to do the right things. Romney can be so forced, Obama cannot be.

[2qb7gp0aqb22z]

JB , If the TEA PARTY " Generals" had a pair to unite what you say could happen . It bothers me that the only group that could actually get this done is now an entity unto themselves and it's Generals now are vying for something else . Not sure what it is but by waiting it takes power away from the people . Offense is much better than defense . Could be wrong but we need heat , not political correctness .

And what do you mean 3rd Party ?

[2qb7gp0aqb22z]

JB , Never mind the question I asked , Didn't read the above . Although I agree with Golden Eagle it isn't in the cards this time around . Unless we can get rid of the "Corporation" which is highly unlikely it's a very good idea .